run a simple linear regression analysis using new confirmed cases as your x predictor variable and new deaths as your y variable predicted a provide the excel output of your linear regression analysis b is the model significant and why c what i 1
Midterm take home exam
Forecasting
This exercise will be worth 40 percent of your grade, by teams as they are currently assigned. The rest of the midterm will be worth 60 and will be taken on the 2nd of April individually. This portion of your midterm is due by 4pm on Thursday April 2nd.
While we are in a business course and our forecasting will mostly be about demand and other related items, these tools are also applicable to other forecasting efforts, not the least of which is the current pandemic gripping our world. Of course, anyone who has any inkling towards investing realizes how critical it is to be able to forecast the growth of infections in this instance as it is affecting global financial markets in historic ways.
Go the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDPC) and examine the data therein. Look at the rate of growth for certain countries and see if you can glean any information from it. What about the maps, is there anything there that is telling? Here’s another map that presents all the data in a well-designed graphical interface. Focus on the numbers.
Then go and download the data on the geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide. Scroll through the table and see if there is anything there that you can pick up. Once you’ve spent some time digesting the data, open the below Excel data set, which I downloaded on 16 March 2020 and from which I’ve extracted data for the 8 countries with the highest number of reported infections.
COVID-19-geographi c-disbtribution-worldwide-2020-03-16-2.xls
Each team will work with one country as follows:
Team 7 United States
Answer/complete the following data questions/tasks.
- 4 points. Produce a scatter plot of the data with all appropriate labels. Analyze the plot for data patterns. Write a 5-sentence summary of your observations.
- 2 points. Given your prior analysis via the scatter plot, what forecasting model do you think might work here? Explain in three sentences or more the model and why you think it might work.
- 4 points. Conduct an exponential smoothing forecast starting with the first possible period. (Hint: Naïve forecasting for which day?)
- You select the alpha based on what you see how the data is changing day by day. Explain how you decided on your alpha. Minimum two or three sentences.
- Based on your forecast, calculate the number of reported cases for 17 March____
- Calculate MAD and include in your table. (You will need to pull the data for 17 March from the ECDPC website.
- 6 points. Run a simple linear regression analysis using new confirmed cases as your x (predictor) variable, and new deaths as your y variable (predicted).
- Provide the Excel output of your linear regression analysis.
- Is the model significant and why?
- What is your simple linear regression equation?
- Given your linear regression equation, what would be the expected number of deaths if the number of new confirmed cases rises to 10 times the actual on March 17?
- Calculate MAD for your linear regression based on your March 17 forecast.
- 4 points. Select one of the forecasting methods, (averaging, or linear regression) and prepare one or two slides explaining your findings. On the 2nd of April, we will spend 3 – 5 minutes per team, where each team will explain your analysis to the class, using these slides, whatever you choose to present of the two approaches used above.
Deliverables
1. Present your answers in a Word document with a proper cover page. Label each answer per the questions/tasks above.
a. Include the graphs and Excel outputs
- Turn in your excel spreadsheet with all your work
- Turn in your one or two slides presenting your selected forecasting approaches.
