Decision Tree
The supplement to Chapter 5 in your textbook describes and develops several decision trees. In a 4-5 page paper, not including the cover and reference pages, develop a decision tree for the case described. Explain the process of developing a decision tree; draw the decision tree (include the decision tree in an appendix showing chance nodes, probabilities, outcomes, expected values, and net expected value); and defend your final decision based on your decision tree. A case for consideration—An operations manager for a cereal producer is faced with a choice of: A large-scale investment (A) to purchase a new cooker which could produce a substantial pay-off in terms of increased revenue net of costs but requires an investment of 3,750,000 Saudi Riyal. After extensive market research, it is thought that there is a 40% chance that a pay-off of 9,375,000 Saudi Riyal will be realized, but there is a 60% chance that it will be only 3,000,000 Saudi Riyal. A smaller-scale project (B) to refurbish an existing cooker. At 1,875,000 Saudi Riyal, this option is less costly but produces a lower pay-off. Again, extensive research data suggests a 30% chance of a gain of 3,750,000 Saudi Riyal but a 70% chance of it being only 1,875,000 Saudi Riyal. Continuing the present operation without change (C) which cost nothing, but produces no pay-off. More Details For clarity here is what I will look for in your CT Module 6 based on the assignment description: To MEET sources rubric – two current [2015-2019] scholarly, peer-reviewed references in supporting your answer. To MEET content rubric – an explanation of the process of developing a decision tree, a description of your application to the case, and a defense of your final decision based on your decision tree To MEET the analysis rubric – a decision tree in the appendix after the references page which includes the decision tree showing chance nodes, probabilities, outcomes, expected values, and net expected value The case for you to use is the described cereal producer faced with a choice of: a large-scale investment (A) to purchase a new cooker, a smaller scale project (B) to refurbish an existing cooker, and continuing the present operation without change (C) which costs nothing. Begin with an opening paragraph that has a thesis and mapping of what you are doing. Use logical headings which build your content and analysis, finish with a conclusion, have a references page followed by your appendix.
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